We’re rolling on a diesel theme this week, apparently…
Today’s New York Times Wheels blog quotes Johan de Nysschen, president of Audi of America, dissing the forthcoming Chevy Volt:
"No one is going to pay a $15,000 premium for a car that competes with a Corolla. So there are not enough idiots who will buy it."
(Actually, the quote comes originally from an MSN Autos interview with Lawrence Ulrich, published yesterday. Both articles are worth a read.) Now, it’s worth noting that De Nysschen has a vested interest in this subject since Audi has a significant technical and marketing investment in diesel powertrains. As in bringing several new diesel models to the US in 2010.
And winning Le Mans.
But, aside from the incendiary quote most commentators will focus on, De Nysschen makes a good point about diesel cars being more relevant to buyers than EVs.
Diesel provides better efficiency at lower costs right now for consumers. The infrastructure is in place to refine, distribute, and sell diesel. US refineries and local oil sources are well positioned for making diesel efficiently. The technology is well known so both dealers and independent garages can service the cars. Plus diesel drivetrains are legendarily reliable and long-lived.
You can buy a diesel car today in both sporty and utilitarian models (or sporty and utilitarian at the same time if you like sportwagons).
You can find diesel fuel easily at reasonable cost. (As I write this, the AAA Fuel Gauge Report of national average prices shows roughly equivalent costs for diesel and gasoline. In fact, diesel is currently less expensive than premium gas and MPG/BTU-corrected E85 prices.)
You can get your diesel car serviced wherever you like (lowering cost of ownership), and if you’re so inclined (as I am), drive it for a decade or more.
How does the EV stack up? How long do the batteries last? What will it cost to replace them? What is the environmental cost of decommissioning or recycling battery packs?
We don't know and, so far as I can tell, nobody in the business wants to talk about these hidden costs of EV technology.
That said, there are other mitigating factors that need to be addressed in debates over diesel versus EV. Diesels tend to have lower CO2 emissions, but can have higher NO2 and particulate emissions than comparable petrol engines. Diesel fuel is broadly available, but not ubiquitous. EV recharging infrastructure – particularly away from home – needs to be built up still, and one has to wonder how much greenhouse gas gets emitted when generating the electricity for these cars. The batteries contain heavy metals that come from where and go to where? And so on.
In the longer term we need to move away from dependence on single-occupant vehicles altogether. I firmly believe that, even though I’m a long-time, dedicated automobile and motorsport enthusiast. Our sustainable future depends on making cars a weekend hobby rather than a necessity of modern life. Although diesel is a readymade step toward better efficiency, does it reinforce our continuing reliance on cars and roadway infrastructure? Does diesel undermine change toward a more sustainable transportation environment? Would a faster transition to EV – even with its current constraints on driving distance, recharging time and infrastructure, and cost versus lifetime – increase momentum toward a carless future?
I dunno. In the meantime, there aren’t any EV wagons, so it’s a moot point.